Multi-factor jump-diffusion models of electricity prices
نویسندگان
چکیده
The recent deregulation of electricity markets has led to the creation of energy exchanges, where the electricity is freely traded. In this paper, we study the most salient statistical features of electricity prices with a particular attention to the European energy exchanges. These features can be adequately reproduced by the sum-OU model: a model representing the price as a sum of Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) processes. We present a new method for filtering out the different OU components and develop a statistical procedure for estimating the sum-OU model from data.
منابع مشابه
Option Pricing on Commodity Prices Using Jump Diffusion Models
In this paper, we aim at developing a model for option pricing to reduce the risks associated with Ethiopian commodity prices fluctuations. We used the daily closed Unwashed Lekempti grade 5 (ULK5) coffee and Whitish Wollega Sesame Seed Grade3 (WWSS3) prices obtained from Ethiopia commodity exchange (ECX) market to analyse the prices fluctuations.The natures of log-returns of the prices exhibit a...
متن کاملPricing of Commodity Futures Contract by Using of Spot Price Jump-Diffusion Process
Futures contract is one of the most important derivatives that is used in financial markets in all over the world to buy or sell an asset or commodity in the future. Pricing of this tool depends on expected price of asset or commodity at the maturity date. According to this, theoretical futures pricing models try to find this expected price in order to use in the futures contract. So in this ar...
متن کاملPricing of Futures Contracts by Considering Stochastic Exponential Jump Domain of Spot Price
Derivatives are alternative financial instruments which extend traders opportunities to achieve some financial goals. They are risk management instruments that are related to a data in the future, and also they react to uncertain prices. Study on pricing futures can provide useful tools to understand the stochastic behavior of prices to manage the risk of price volatility. Thus, this study eval...
متن کاملAn excitable stochastic model of electricity prices dynamics
In the last decade some countries decided to undertake a deregulation process of the electricity sector in order to bring competition to the previously monopolistic market. In all those countries electricity is now a traded commodity and its price is determined according to the rule of supply and demand. The empirical analysis reveals that market prices are variable and unpredictable with jumps...
متن کاملModelling Electricity Prices: A Time Change Approach
To capture mean reversion and sharp seasonal spikes observed in electricity prices, this paper develops a new stochastic model for electricity spot prices by time changing the Jump CoxIngersoll-Ross (JCIR) process with a random clock that is a composite of a Gamma subordinator and a deterministic clock with seasonal activity rate. The time-changed JCIR process is a timeinhomogeneous Markov semi...
متن کامل